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Deal audit
Maple Street duplex-adjacent SFH
1487 Maple St, Springfield, OH
$235,000 price · $1,795/mo rent · target 8.0% cash-on-cash · Aug 19, 2026
Economics
borderline
The math is borderline as underwritten
- Monthly cash flow $18 ($216/yr).
- Cash-on-cash 0.3% against your 8.0% minimum.
- DSCR 1.06 (NOI $14,756 / debt service $13,894).
Rule: Works = monthly cash flow strictly above $0 AND (cash-on-cash at or above your target, or not applicable because $0 cash is invested) AND (no debt OR DSCR at or above 1.20). Borderline = cash flow exactly $0, or cash flow above $0 while the target or DSCR is missed. Fails = monthly cash flow below $0.
Proof
mixed
Proof is uneven
- 3 Documented, 3 Supported, 3 Estimated, 3 Assumed, 1 Missing across 13 tracked lines.
- 46% of tracked lines rest on a document or an outside reference.
Rule: Strong = at least 70% of tracked lines Documented or Supported and no more than 2 Assumed/Missing. Weak = fewer than 40% Documented/Supported or 6+ Assumed/Missing. Otherwise Mixed.
Resilience
fragile
Almost no room for error
- Break-even gross rent is $1,774 against $1,795 underwritten.
- Rent has roughly 1% of room before monthly cash flow reaches $0.
- 4 tracked line(s) have under 10% of room before cash flow reaches $0.
Rule: Strong = rent can fall 15% or more before cash flow hits $0 and fewer than two other lines have under 10% room. Fragile = negative cash flow now, or rent cushion under 5%. Otherwise Thin.
Deal Red Team V1
Verdict: Borderline
One skeptical conclusion from the same deterministic underwriting, evidence and sensitivity model. It is an analysis verdict, not a recommendation to buy or sell.
Verdict
Within the current Rental Red Team V1 scope, evidence is mixed: some important assumptions have support while others remain estimated, assumed, or missing. This is qualitative confidence, not a probability.
Combined downside
$18 → -$270/mo
CoC 0.3% → -4.2% · DSCR 0.82
The combined top-three challenge turns monthly cash flow from $18 to -$270.
Exact V1 shocks applied together
- Monthly rent: $1,795/mo → $1,616/mo
- Interest rate: 6.88% → 7.56%
- Other monthly costs: $0/mo → $50/mo
Next investigation
Verify Monthly rent
Signed lease, rent roll, or three closed rental comps.
Why it works on paper
- Positive modeled cash flow of $18/mo.
Why it may fail
- What if monthly rent is wrong? It is marked supported and cash flow reaches $0 when it falls past $1,774. Past that point the deal stops producing cash. A plausible harmful error changes about $156/mo of cash flow.
- What if interest rate is wrong? It is marked supported and cash flow reaches $0 when it rises past 7.03%. Past that point the deal stops producing cash. A plausible harmful error changes about $82/mo of cash flow.
- What if other monthly costs is wrong? It is marked missing and cash flow reaches $0 when it rises past $18. Past that point the deal stops producing cash. A plausible harmful error changes about $50/mo of cash flow.
- Management is currently modeled at $0, which assumes you self-manage indefinitely. Confirm whether the deal still clears your target if you hand it off later.
- Other monthly costs are currently modeled at $0. Confirm landlord-paid utilities, lawn/snow, pest, and any rental licensing are genuinely zero.
What don't we know well enough yet?
- 1Monthly rent: Signed lease, rent roll, or three closed rental comps.
- 2Interest rate: Rate lock or written lender term sheet.
- 3Other monthly costs: Utilities, lawn, snow, pest, licensing invoices.
- 4Management fee: Management agreement, including lease-up and renewal fees.
- 5Insurance: Written quote for this address, not a per-door average.
- 6Maintenance: Inspection report plus historical repair spend.
- 7Vacancy: Submarket vacancy data or your own turnover history.
- 8CapEx reserve: Component ages (roof, HVAC, water heater) and replacement costs.
- 9Upfront rehab: Contractor scope and bid, with contingency.
- 10Closing costs: Lender fee worksheet or title estimate.
Outside the current model
These are known diligence blind spots, not claims that the deal is bad and not downgrades to your evidence labels.
- 1Lease and occupancy durability: Signed leases, current rent roll, expiration dates, concessions and at least 12 months of tenant payment history.
- 2Property condition and deferred capital: Inspection report, major-system ages, sewer/roof/HVAC information and contractor scopes or bids for known defects.
- 3Financing structure beyond rate and amortization: Written lender term sheet showing rate type, points/fees, amortization, maturity/balloon, interest-only terms, recourse and prepayment language.
- 4Post-acquisition property-tax basis: Current tax bill plus jurisdiction reassessment rules and a post-sale tax estimate based on the contemplated purchase price.
- 5Insurance coverage quality: Address-specific quote or declarations showing coverage limits, deductibles, exclusions and catastrophe endorsements.
- 6Exit, hold period and liquidity: Intended hold period, exit method, selling-cost assumption and the evidence supporting any resale value, terminal cap rate or refinance plan.
What would change the verdict?
- A purchase price at or below $159,318 would meet the stated 8.0% cash-on-cash target if every other assumption stayed fixed.
- Gross rent of about $2,369/mo would meet the stated cash-on-cash target if every other assumption stayed fixed.
- Create more downside room: the current model is Fragile, so even modest adverse movement can cross a decision threshold.
Assumptions to challenge first
- 1Monthly rent(high)
- 2Interest rate(high)
- 3Other monthly costs(moderate)
- 4Purchase price(high)
- 5Property tax(high)
The combined downside is a repeatable stress convention, not a probability forecast. The exact shocks are shown above. Full break-even and maximum-price math remains below with its assumptions shown.
Section 1
Does the math work?
Recomputed from your inputs with standard amortization. Nothing here is adjusted or smoothed.
Monthly cash flow
$18
$216 per year
Cash-on-cash
0.3%
Target 8.0%
DSCR
1.06
NOI / $13,894
Cap rate
6.28%
NOI $14,756 / price
Monthly P&I
$1,158
Loan $176,250
Cash invested
$77,550
Down $58,750 + rehab $12,000 + closing $6,800
Break-even rent
$1,774
Underwritten at $1,795
Operating expense ratio
28%
Of collected rent, excluding debt
Monthly income
Monthly outflow
Section 2
What did you forget?
Standard categories that are currently sitting at zero. A zero can be correct — this section asks, it does not accuse.
- Confirm
Management is currently modeled at $0, which assumes you self-manage indefinitely. Confirm whether the deal still clears your target if you hand it off later.
- Confirm
Other monthly costs are currently modeled at $0. Confirm landlord-paid utilities, lawn/snow, pest, and any rental licensing are genuinely zero.
Section 3
What are you assuming rather than proving?
Your evidence tags plus any source context carried from an accepted upload. Upload context never decides the evidence status, and DealSkeptic does not check it against public records.
Swipe sideways →
| Assumption | Basis | Plausible error impact | Upload source | Your note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monthly rent | Supported | about $156/mo of cash flow | — | Three leases within 0.4 mi at $1,725-$1,850. No lease on the subject unit. |
| Interest rate | Supported | about $82/mo of cash flow | — | Quoted, not locked. |
| Other monthly costs | Missing | about $50/mo of cash flow | — | — |
| Purchase price | Documented | about $116/mo of cash flow | — | Executed purchase contract, 14 Mar. |
| Property tax | Documented | about $27/mo of cash flow | — | County bill: $3,180. Reassessment after sale not yet modeled. |
| Management fee | Assumed | about $17/mo of cash flow | — | Plan is to self-manage year one. |
| Insurance | Estimated | about $12/mo of cash flow | — | Carried forward from another property in the same county. |
| Maintenance | Assumed | about $9/mo of cash flow | — | Rule of thumb. |
| Vacancy | Estimated | about $9/mo of cash flow | — | Submarket average, not property history. |
| HOA dues | Documented | about $50/mo of cash flow | — | No HOA on this parcel. |
| CapEx reserve | Assumed | about $5/mo of cash flow | — | Roof age unknown; HVAC reported as 2011. |
| Upfront rehab | Estimated | adds more upfront cash invested without changing monthly cash flow | — | Walkthrough estimate, no contractor bid. |
| Closing costs | Supported | adds more upfront cash invested without changing monthly cash flow | — | Lender fee worksheet, draft. |
Section 4
How wrong can you afford to be?
Each line is moved in the direction that hurts, holding everything else fixed, until cash flow reaches $0 and until cash-on-cash falls to your target.
Swipe sideways →
| Assumption | Now | Misses 8.0% target at | Cash flow $0 at | Room / effect |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monthly rent↓ hurts | $1,795 | already below | $1,774 | 1% to $0 · -$87/mo per $100 of rent |
| Purchase price↑ hurts | $235,000 | already below | $238,649 | 2% to $0 · -$49/mo per $10,000 of price |
| Insurance (annual)↑ hurts | $1,450 | already below | $1,666 | 15% to $0 · -$42/mo per $500/yr |
| Property tax (annual)↑ hurts | $3,180 | already below | $3,396 | 7% to $0 · -$42/mo per $500/yr |
| Vacancy↑ hurts | 5.0% | already below | 6.0% | 20% to $0 · -$18/mo per 1 pt of vacancy |
| Maintenance↑ hurts | 5.0% | already below | 6.0% | 20% to $0 · -$18/mo per 1 pt of rent |
| CapEx reserve↑ hurts | 3.0% | already below | 4.0% | 33% to $0 · -$18/mo per 1 pt of rent |
| Management fee↑ hurts | 0.0% | already below | 1.1% | -$17/mo per 1 pt of collected rent |
| Upfront rehab↑ hurts | $12,000 | already below | no direct effect | -0.02 pts CoC per $5,000 of rehab; monthly cash flow unchanged |
| HOA dues (monthly)↑ hurts | $0 | already below | $18 | -$50/mo per $50/mo of HOA |
| Other monthly costs↑ hurts | $0 | already below | $18 | -$50/mo per $50/mo of other costs |
| Closing costs↑ hurts | $6,800 | already below | no direct effect | Adds upfront cash invested per $2,500 of closing costs; monthly cash flow unchanged |
| Interest rate↑ hurts | 6.88% | already below | 7.03% | 2% to $0 · -$59/mo per 0.5 pt of rate |
Red team
Try to break my deal
The few assumptions most likely to reverse the decision, argued against you. Each one combines weak proof with real financial leverage.
- 01
Monthly rent
What if monthly rent is wrong? It is marked supported and cash flow reaches $0 when it falls past $1,774.
Past that point the deal stops producing cash. A plausible harmful error changes about $156/mo of cash flow.
How to settle it: Signed lease, rent roll, or three closed rental comps.
- 02
Interest rate
What if interest rate is wrong? It is marked supported and cash flow reaches $0 when it rises past 7.03%.
Past that point the deal stops producing cash. A plausible harmful error changes about $82/mo of cash flow.
How to settle it: Rate lock or written lender term sheet.
- 03
Other monthly costs
What if other monthly costs is wrong? It is marked missing and cash flow reaches $0 when it rises past $18.
Past that point the deal stops producing cash. A plausible harmful error changes about $50/mo of cash flow.
How to settle it: Utilities, lawn, snow, pest, licensing invoices.
- 04
Self-management
Management is modeled at $0, so the return partly reflects your unpaid labour rather than the asset.
At a market 8% of collected rent, monthly cash flow would fall by about $136.
How to settle it: Re-run the deal at 8-10% management and see whether it still clears your target.
- 05
Lender view
DSCR is 1.06. Many lenders underwrite investment property at 1.25 minimum using their own expense assumptions, not yours.
If the lender re-underwrites with higher vacancy or management, financing terms can change late in the process.
How to settle it: Ask your lender which expense assumptions they apply and re-check DSCR against those.
Section 5
What should you verify first?
Ranked by weak proof combined with financial sensitivity — not by an invented score.
- 1
Monthly rent
Supportedhigh exposureMarked Supported; a plausible harmful error changes about $156/mo of cash flow, and it can move about 1% before monthly cash flow reaches $0.
Get proof from: Signed lease, rent roll, or three closed rental comps.
- 2
Interest rate
Supportedhigh exposureMarked Supported; a plausible harmful error changes about $82/mo of cash flow, and it can move about 2% before monthly cash flow reaches $0.
Get proof from: Rate lock or written lender term sheet.
- 3
Other monthly costs
Missingmoderate exposureMarked Missing; a plausible harmful error changes about $50/mo of cash flow, and cash-on-cash is already below the 8.0% target.
Get proof from: Utilities, lawn, snow, pest, licensing invoices.
Section 6
What price or terms make this work?
Solved against your own 8.0% minimum, holding every other assumption fixed.
Maximum purchase price at 8.0% cash-on-cash
$159,318
Holding every other assumption fixed, $159,318 is the highest price that still returns 8.0%. That is $75,682 below your modeled price.
Minimum gross rent at 8.0% cash-on-cash
$2,369
You need $2,369/mo to hit 8.0%. You underwrote $1,795.
Break-even gross rent
$1,774
Below $1,774/mo the property stops covering its own costs including debt service.
DealSkeptic is an analytical tool. It audits the underwriting you supplied and does not independently verify public records, leases, tax rolls, or insurance quotes. It does not tell you to buy or sell. Every figure above is arithmetic applied to your own inputs under the rules stated in each section.